14th April
The Impact of COVID-19 on the Italian Hotel Market
See here for the full insights, with below, the key highlights.
The impact that COVID-19 will have on the national economy depends on two factors: One, the size of the tourism sector as a whole, and, two, the country’s dependence on foreign tourists.
Countries that strongly depend on international travellers will be suffering economically. As a result, countries with a significant amount of domestic tourism are better off in this situation. Once COVID-19 measures are eased, domestic tourism will recover much faster than cross-border tourism.
Italy recorded about 429 million of stays composed by an equal percentage of domestic and international flows. Tourism represented about 5% of GDP (direct contribution only, but more than 13% if we also consider indirect and induced contribution).
It means that Italy risks facing a prolonged recovery.
Italy | Possible Future Scenarios
In three months, it will be summer season. If the virus is not stable or under control at that time, then the consequences will be even more significant for the tourism industry and the world economy since summer is the most profitable season, especially for Italy. Putting together the main aspects (Tourist origin, timing and mean of transport) we can define three different recovery scenarios.
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DISCLAIMER
The analysis and finding reported on this microsite is based primarily on Colliers International data, which may be helpful in anticipating trends in the property sector. However, no warranty is given as to the accuracy of, and no liability for negligence is accepted in relation to, the forecasts, figures or conclusions contained in this report and they must not be relied on for investment or any other purposes. The outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19), declared by the World Health Organisation as a “Global Pandemic” on the 11th March 2020, has impacted market activity in many sectors, creating an unprecedented set of circumstances on which to base a judgement. This report does not constitute and must not be treated as investment or valuation advice or an offer to buy or sell property. Given the unknown future impact that COVID-19 might have on real estate market supply, demand and pricing variables, we recommend that you recognise that our research and analysis is far more prone to market uncertainty, despite our endeavours to maintain our robust and objective reporting.
